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Study Shows Who Is Moving Downtown Everyone knows that Lower Manhattan’s residential population is skyrocketing. But just who are these people filling up the new residential towers, former office buildings-turned-swanky condos, and multi-million dollar lofts? A recently released study, conducted by the population division of the Department of City Planning, provides not just an official head count of recent arrivals, but a unique portrait of the new Downtown. City Planning commissioned the study, combining data from the 2000 census with a survey from 2005, to measure the changes in Lower Manhattan since the terrorist attacks. The study shows a residential increase of about 25 percent in Lower Manhattan from 2000 to 2005. More precisely, there were 34,700 residents living below Canal Street in 2000. In 2005, when a special survey was conducted, the population was 43,700. The increase came despite the exodus of 4,500 residents from Lower Manhattan following the 2001 terrorist attacks. According to the study, not only had the population below Canal Street rebounded since Sept. 11, it had seen a net increase of nearly 7,000 residents. In disproportionate numbers, according to the study, the new Downtowners are young, single, well-educated, highly-paid men. This group accounts for three-fourths of the population that took up residence below Canal Street between 2000 and 2005. Paddington Zwigard, a real estate agent with Brown Harris Stevens, wasn’t surprised. “I definitely get a lot more single guys calling than I used to,” she said. “I’m not saying it’s taking over my business, but it used to be rare.” The study found that many residents live alone, or with a roommate or two, and are willing to spend more than a third of their income on rent, higher than anywhere else in the city. Many real estate agents agree that proximity to work is much of the draw. “I’d say 60 percent of our clients are in finance,” said Christopher Daly, president of Sheldrake and the developer of Riverhouse in Battery Park City. Downtown residents now have the highest level of education in the city, the report finds. In 2005, 74 percent had a college degree, a 54 percent increase over the year 2000. So it should come as no surprise that many collect a handsome paycheck. The median household income in 2000 in Lower Manhattan was $82,200. After adjusting for inflation, the median income in 2005, following the influx of new residents, was $98,100. In interviews with the Trib, several real estate agents said most of their clients were migrating from other parts of Manhattan, particularly the Upper East Side. The study notes that the surge in Lower Manhattan’s population was under way well before 2000, driven by development in the 1990s. And cataclysmic as the Sept. 11 attacks were, they appear to have put only a temporary hold on growth Downtown. The infusion of $1.6 billion in Liberty Bonds for residential development following the attacks, combined with a weak market for office space, accounts for much of the recent residential rush to Lower Manhattan. Nearly 5,000 housing units were created in the five-year window of the study. But most of these new housing units were one-bedroom apartments in high-rise buildings. And a whopping 63 percent of all households in Lower Manhattan were non-family (meaning unmarried and without children), the highest percentage in the city. Several real estate experts who spoke to the Trib said their clientele was more varied than the study suggests. “My experience is that there’s a wide range of people moving in, from young singles to couples to families,” said Sonia Stock, vice president at Prudential Douglas Elliman. But the numbers suggest that the flood of young men is rapidly changing the face of the neighborhood. Consider that in 2000, the male to female ratio below Canal Street was nearly even, at 101 men per 100 women. In 2005, the ratio was 126 men per 100 women. Joseph Salvo, director of the population division for City Planning and a co-author on the study, told the Trib that while the sex ratio is somewhat unusual for Manhattan, the surge of singles is not. “The average household size is still around two or less in most of Manhattan, and many people decide to move out once they have that second child,” he said. “The question now is will the new residential community blossom, or will it follow the pattern of the rest of the borough?” he added. “We’re hopeful that by incorporating amenities in Lower Manhattan, we’ll make it more attractive for families. There’s no doubt that this area’s population will continue to increase.”
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